The market share for mortgaged multiple property owners (MPOs), or investors, rose from 24% in July to 25% in August and the share for first home buyers dropped from 27% to 25%.

However, the number of settled transactions in August was clearly affected by lockdown – down 49% compared to the average for the prior 12 months. Given this smaller sample of data, CoreLogic says it’s cautious about saying that investors have genuinely made a comeback in the past month or so.

CoreLogic’s chief property economist Kelvin Davidson says it’s more informative to look at figures across July and August combined. And on this basis the downward trend for mortgaged investors’ market share across the country is clear.

“At 24%, their share of the market is back down at the levels of early last year, prior to the loan-to-value ratio speed limits being removed.

“In terms of what happens next, history from 2016-17 tells us that the 40% deposit requirement on its own could push down investors’ market share further and, of course, their presence could ultimately fall further than it did back when it troughed at 22%, because this time around there’s the extra pressure of the Government’s tax changes.”

Davidson says the recent pullback by mortgaged investors and the rebound for first home buyers is evident around many parts of the country, with Christchurch in particular standing out.

But the game may be about to change again for first home buyers, as the low deposit speed limit is set to be cut from 20% of owner-occupier lending to 10%. The major lending banks are operating well below the 20% speed limit, but only because non-first home buyers low deposit lending is quiet.