CoreLogic says there will be a switch to a buyer’s market late next year as the recent ebb in listings turns to a flow. In its latest Market Pulse report, CoreLogic says there could even be a fall in prices.

Over the past few months listing flows have recovered and achieved sales have dipped. Since the recent trough, the total number of listings has risen by almost 40%, and is now back up to the highest level since March.

“That’s still a low level,” says Kelvin Davidson, CoreLogic’s senior property economist. “The gap to where they were at the same time in previous years is nevertheless steadily closing. It’s conceivable that by the end of the year listings will have recovered to where they were — or even above — at the end of 2020.”

The turnaround for total listings isn’t a universal trend, but is clear to see in some of the main centres — notably Dunedin and Wellington and to a lesser extent Hamilton, where listings are now back above the levels that prevailed at the same time in 2019 and 2020.

Davidson says there have already been signs of property values faltering a little in Dunedin in recent months, so more choice for buyers could see evidence of softer price pressures become clearer, as well as spreading to parts of Wellington.

“A rise in listings means more choice for buyers, a drop in price pressure and a switch to a buyer’s market—albeit buyers will have to work harder to get finance.” He says this will not apply to areas with low unemployment and motivated sellers few and far between. “Vendors may just sit tight for a while and not budge on price or even just withdraw their listing.”